2016 Big 12 Conference Preview

With every new college football season comes a new round of predictions, upsets, and the mayhem that comes along with the best regular season in sports. The Big 12 is uniquely chaotic, with its nine game, round robin conference schedule. Without further ado, here are my predictions for standings, players of the year, coach of the year, and teams that will surprise (good and bad).

Oklahoma 9-3 (7-2)

Losses: Ohio State, at TCU, at Texas Tech

The Sooners come into 2016 with very high expectations after a playoff berth last season. Heisman hopeful Baker Mayfield returns, and he will lead the best backfield in the conference that also includes Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. However, OU lost first team All-Big 12 performers Eric Striker, Zack Sanchez, Dominique Alexander and Charles Tapper on defense, and wide receiver Sterling Sheperd on offense from last season. The Sooners may have to outscore teams to retain their conference title. I think they’ll stumble on the road against teams with high-powered offenses.

Oklahoma State 10-2 (7-2)

Losses: at TCU, at Oklahoma

I am admittedly higher on the Cowboys than most, if for no other reason than they bring back ten starters on offense, including a really good and underrated quarterback in Mason Rudolph and the entire offensive line. They also have a weak non-conference slate and backloaded conference schedule, finishing the year in back-to-back weeks at TCU and OU for Bedlam. The Cowboys have the potential to make the College Football Playoff if the defense, which returns eight starters, improves from last season.

TCU 10-2 (7-2)

Losses: at Kansas, at Texas

TCU is a very tough team to project. Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs bring back a ton of talent, including the best linebacking corps in the conference. The Frogs will not lack pass rushers, as they bring back sack leaders Josh Carraway and James McFarland on the edge. The schedule also favors the Frogs. They play ten games in the state of Texas, and only leave the state for games at Kansas and West Virginia. Both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State come to Ft. Worth. Quarterback play will be key for TCU. If Kenny Hill and Foster Sawyer are ineffective, it could be a long season in Ft. Worth. If Hill and/or Sawyer play well, then a playoff birth isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Texas Tech 9-3 (6-3)

Losses: at Arizona State, at Kansas State, at TCU, at Oklahoma State

Is this the year that Kliff Kingsbury’s Red Raiders finally put it together and finish in the top half of the conference? An easy home slate helps, with only Oklahoma and Baylor expected to be ranked when they come to Lubbock. I am a big believer in Pat Mahomes, and the Tech offense as a whole. They will be young, but very talented at wide receiver and on the offensive line. The real questions are come on defense. The Red Raiders gave up almost 44 points per game last season, so second year coordinator David Gibbs is on the hot seat. The unit returns a core of defensive tackle Breiden Fehoko, linebacker D’Vonta Hinton and safety Jah’Shawn Johnson for an inexperienced unit. If the Raiders can stop anyone, they could be in for a great year.

Kansas State 7-5 (5-4)

Losses: at Stanford, at Oklahoma, vs. Oklahoma State, at Baylor, at TCU

Kansas State will undoubtedly be a better team this season. Quarterback Jesse Ertz returns from injury, along with two top running backs (Charles Jones and Justin Silmon), and receiver Byron Pringle. The Wildcats do have questions along the offensive line, as they’re replacing four starters, including new Chicago Bear Cody Whitehair. Tom Hayes’ defense will be a nightmare for opposing offenses. They return safeties Dante Barnett and Kendall Adams, as well as all conference linebacker Elijah Lee. All told, that’s 11 out of 14 top tacklers, plus all-conference safety Dante Barnett. However, Kansas State has a brutal road schedule with games at Stanford, Oklahoma, and TCU.

Baylor 7-5 (4-5)

Losses: vs. Oklahoma State, vs. TCU, at Oklahoma, at Texas Tech, at West Virginia

Baylor is without question the most difficult team in the Big 12 to predict. They could carry on like usual, or go on a John L. Smith led Arkansas team plummet into the depths of the conference. The reality is likely somewhere in the middle. Outstanding quarterback Seth Russell returns, as well as veteran running backs Shock Linwood and Johnny Jefferson. One of the best receivers in the nation, KD Cannon, also returns. However, it is unclear whether Russell will have the time to throw to his plethora of weapons. Baylor returns only 14 starts on the offensive line. The defense is also a question. The Bears don’t return any starting defensive linemen from an outstanding unit but the entire secondary returns. If interim coach Jim Grobe can keep this team together, they could definitely outplay this prediction.

Texas 6-6 (4-5)

Losses: vs. Notre Dame, at Oklahoma State, vs. Oklahoma, at Kansas State, vs. Baylor, at Texas Tech

This may be a make or break year for Charlie Strong’s Longhorns. The non-conference schedule doesn’t do them any favors, with the home opener against Notre Dame and a mid-September road trip to Cal. The biggest question for Texas, as it has been since Strong arrived, is quarterback play. In the offseason, Strong hired new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert, formerly of Tulsa. Gilbert comes from the Art Briles brand of offense. Texas plans on starting true freshman (but early enrollee) Shane Buechele, a highly ranked and strong armed prospect from Texas. Strong’s calling card will be the defense, which returns eight starters from a young, but very talented unit a season ago. Texas could be a dangerous team late in the season if the offense comes together, which is why I have them knocking off TCU at home on Thanksgiving weekend.

West Virginia 6-6 (3-6)

Losses: Kansas State, at Texas Tech, vs. TCU, at Oklahoma State, at Texas, vs. Oklahoma State

This West Virginia team may look more like a traditional Dana Holgerson team than any in recent memory. Quarterback Skyler Howard returns, along with four of five offensive linemen and talent at running back and wide receiver. There’s enough talent on offense to hang with anyone in the conference. However, the defense is a significant question. The Mountaineers lost eight starters on defense, including the entire linebacking corps. Morgantown is also a very difficult road trip late in the season, so Holgerson’s squad could play spoiler to potential playoff hopefuls in the Big 12.

Iowa State 2-10 (1-8)

Losses: at Iowa, at TCU, Baylor, at Oklahoma State, at Texas, vs. Kansas State, vs. Oklahoma, vs. Texas Tech, vs. West Virginia

New head coach Matt Campbell, formerly of Toledo, is bringing new enthusiasm to Ames this season. However, this will not be the year that the Cyclone faithful will see results. On the bright side, Campbell has offensive talent at the skill positions to work with. Joel Lanning returns, along with criminally underrated wide receiver Allen Lazard. ISU does have to replace the entire offensive line, which has only one returning start from last season. The defense hopes to improve from its 107^th ranking last season and should be helped with eight returning starters. A brutal schedule will likely mask how good this team will be.

Kansas 3-9 (1-8)

Losses: at Memphis, at Texas Tech, at Baylor, Oklahoma State, at Oklahoma, at West Virginia, vs. Iowa State, vs. Texas, at Kansas State

In year two of David Beaty’s tenure, the Jayhawks will be much more competitive. They return nearly all contributors from last year on offense, including quarterback Ryan Willis, running back Ke’aun Kinner, and a deep, but young, corps of wide recievers. The biggest question is who plays at quarterback. KU’s week one depth chart lists three potential starters: Wilis, junior Montell Cozart, and redshirt freshman Carter Stanley. The defense should be much improved from last year’s 123^rd place ranking behind sophomore end Dorrance Armstrong, junior linebacker Joe Dineen, and senior safety Fish Smithson. This will not be the year the Jayhawks snap their 38 game road losing streak, but they will be much more competitive, finally winning against Rhode Island, Ohio, and shocking the TCU Horned Frogs in Lawrence, who they’ve played very tough the last two meetings.