Total Points Over 136.5 (-110)
If I had seen this total a week ago, I would have probably agreed with it and thus, stayed away from betting a side. However, one major development has occurred since then. KJ Adams being sidelined with a shoulder injury significantly changes the way Kansas basketball plays, and it was evident in their first game without him.
In the five conference games prior to Adams' injury, the Jayhawks' games had an average total of 125 points. TCU's average is 138 through their six conference games. That would lead to thinking 136 is a pretty fair total and a tough one to pick over or under on. The problem is, the Jayhawks total skyrocketed in the lone game without Adams. Against Kansas State on Saturday, the total got all the way up to 158, which is the highest total for a Kansas game since the shootout with North Carolina in the second game of the season. The total would have been even higher had it not been for a dreadful outside shooting day from the Wildcats (23-percent on 26 attempts).
Without Adams, the Jayhawks appear to have a more efficient offense and a less ferocious defense. That plays perfectly into taking the over. If you exclude their game against Houston (who might have the best defense in the country), the Horned Frogs are averaging 71 points in conference play. The Jayhawks, even with Adams in the lineup, were averaging 69 points across their five conference games. If the 84 points they scored against Kansas State is any sort of sign of the offensive efficiency without Adams, these two teams should have no problem hitting the over.
Zeke Mayo Over 15.5 Points (-120)
Former Jayhawk Ernest Udeh roams the lane for TCU, and that is the main reason I am going with Mayo's points instead of Hunter Dickinson's. Udeh is a good bit stronger than Dickinson and is a great rim protector, so I worry a bit about how well Dickinson will be able to get good looks in the post.
Another thing that makes me lean towards Mayo is TCU's propensity to allow guards to score points. In five of their six conference games, the leading scorer for their opponents has been a guard. In all five of those games, the guard also scored more than their season average. The two biggest performances were 33 points from Caleb Love (Arizona) and 26 points from Richie Saunders (BYU). What do those two do a lot of? Well, it just so happens to be the same thing Mayo does a lot of.
Love averages 7.5 three-point attempts per game and Saunders sits just shy of 5.5 attempts. Mayo puts up around six three-pointers per game (and closer to seven in conference play). Don't be surprised if Mayo hits the 20-point threshold for the seventh time this season.