Earlier this week, it was announced that the Border Showdown would return to the football field. While that is exciting news for Kansas Jayhawks fans, they have another major rivalry to worry about on Saturday. KU goes on the road to take on its in-state rival in an afternoon edition of the Sunflower Showdown.
Here are my best bets for the game.
Kansas -4.5
The Wildcats have won four straight and are looking for another statement win, this time against their in-state rival. The Jayhawks, while sitting at just 2-2 in their last four, were seconds away from a win over Houston and the biggest blown lead in school history away from a win over Baylor. Those two games were crushing, but they are still playing some of their best basketball all season.
In the first meeting, the Jayhawks pulled out a 10-point win at home in what was a competitive game for the better part of 40 minutes. That was the first game KJ Adams missed due to his shoulder injury, and the defensive struggles showed at times. Hunter Dickinson (25), Zeke Mayo (24), and Dajuan Harris (15) scored more than 75-percent of KU's points, while Coleman Hawkins (15) led a much more balanced attack for K-State.
The reason I like the Jayhawks to cover the spread in this one is how Coach Self has learned to utilize his players over the past month. Aside from a questionable rotation in the second half against Baylor, he has made great use of guys like Flory Bidunga and Rylan Griffen as of late. Since the Adams injury, Bidunga has averaged 24 minutes per game, which is a significant increase from the 13 minutes he was playing prior. His length and athleticism have provided an added layer of effectiveness to both sides of the ball. Rylan Griffen has also seen a good bump in minutes and is playing much better in those minutes.
There is also a bit of a historical trend between these teams. There is almost always one game each year that is close and one that is more of a blowout. Going back to 2019, there has only been one season where this trend doesn't hold. Every other year has had one game decided by less than eight points and the other game decided by more than 11. This year is a bit of a weird one with that trend, since the first game was decided by 10 points. However, it was a two-possession game with three minutes left. I'm comfortable calling that the close game between for this season. That means this game is due to have a bit higher winning margin. Kansas State has beaten Kansas by double digits just once since 1989. If the big win trend continues, there's a very good chance it's in favor of the Jayhawks.
Total Points Over 141.5
For starters, the first meeting between these teams saw the total go way over this number (158). That was also a game where the teams combined to shoot just 28-percent from outside. Assuming they are closer to their average shooting percentages (35-percent between the two teams), they should be able to make up for the defensive bump that KJ Adams brings.
Secondly, the Jayhawks have gone over this number in three of their last four games. The one time they didn't go over was when they held Iowa State to 30-percent shooting from the field and 14-percent from outside. I don't expect that to happen again. The Wildcats have only hit this total in one of their last three games, but two of the misses ended at exactly 141 points. I'll take the chance on that not happening for the third game in a row.