The Kansas Jayhawks have had an intriguing start to the 2026 campaign. In week one against the LIU Sharks, KU dominated the FCS side with an authoritative 51-6 win that saw them cruise through the last three quarters while also showcasing impressive debuts from several newcomers, namely wideout Nik McMillan.
But while there were some tangibles to grab from that result, things came crashing down a week later in the Border Showdown against Missouri. All of a sudden, the Jayhawks’ offense stalled, and while Kansas’ defensive front did its job, repeated digs at KU’s secondary opened up a deflating 38-21 loss.
So the question is, where does KU stand with conference play nearing?
Relying on human output for a question like this is always going to be subjective, so we have decided to base this answer with ESPN Analytics.
How big of a splash can KU still make?
Let’s be honest, recent reports will lead you to believe this is a roster with funding towards the bottom of power-conference football, so until those numbers take a dramatic step forward, the realistic goal will almost always be a bowl game.
According to ESPN, the chances of the Jayhawks achieving that 6-win mark is currently at 34.8%.
Below is every remaining Jayhawk matchup, keeping in mind their 1-1 start.
Arizona State (N) September 19,
Middle Tennessee (H), October 4
Utah (A), October 10
Kansas State (A), October 17
Baylor (H), October 24
TCU (A), October 31
UCF (H), November 7
WVU (A), November 14
BYU (H), November 21
Oklahoma State (A), November 28
Not many of these games are against world-beaters; that said, on average, Kansas hasn’t looked very convincing, so scraping five more wins being given a 34.8% chance this season may be the right gauge right now. But an unexpected win or loss can flip these chances dramatically.
ESPN projects Kansas’ record right now to roughly land at 5-7. Something Jayhawk supporters know all too well as head coach Lance Leipold has recorded 5-7 campaigns for the last two seasons.
From a scheduling standpoint, there is no denying that Leipold and Co. can feel a little hard done. For one, it may have been a bit of a curveball that their trip overseas for the Union Jack Classic was scheduled for week three, rather than week zero where other international games are played. KU is also being dealt with a slate of nine straight games to end the season, a brutal outlook.
However, while five more wins may feel like an eon away, it is worth noting that for the past two seasons this has been a team bounces away from what would be four-straight bowl appearances. If the Jayhawks can win those bounces by a percent more, then there is no reason why Leipold’s third bowl game in six years is out of the realm of possibility.
Up next for the Jayhawks is the Arizona State Sun Devils inside the historic Wembley Stadium. Kickoff is set for 11 a.m. CT this Saturday, with streaming available on Fox Sports One.
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