Star freshman and former McDonald's All-American Flory Bidunga announced his intent to return to Kansas basketball for the 2025-26 college basketball season after announcing his intent to explore options in the transfer portal. This is excellent news for the Jayhawks and Bill Self, whose transfer portal activity has been quiet, patient, and calculated, quite the opposite of what it was the previous two years.
There were many online, including myself, who were worried about the direction of the roster for next season. With so many roster spots needing filling, especially after the mass-transfer portal from the roster, I think it's fair to be worried about things like roster continuity and Kansas culture.
The team has seemingly missed out on the entirety of the top-tier transfers being outbid and out recruited by lesser programs. Creighton picked up Josh Dix, Auburn grabbed Keyshawn Hall, Abdi Bashir went to Kansas State, and MAAC Player of the Year Amarri Monroe returned to Quinnipiac over Bill Self and the Jayhawks.
Instead, the team has opted to bring in guys who seem to fit a certain vibe. Loyola-Chicago guard Jayden Dawson, and Illinois guard Tre White both join next season's roster. Good fits for Bill's system? Sure, but they aren't big-name players like we've seen in summers past.
With rumors that other guys who fit that description are linked to KU, it seems like they're playing 'Moneyball' with the transfer portal. In the modern landscape of the sport, is this the way to go for Kansas basketball?
Quick recap of the concept of 'Moneyball'
Brad Pitt starred in a 2011 film of the same name, based on a book written about the 2002 Oakland Athletics, and the unique analytics-based approach that general manager Billy Beane used to construct the roster using the Athletics' lower budget.
The concept effectively treats players solely as numbers. You can replace players who lack in one aspect of the game with others who excel in that category while ignoring other aspects of talent scouting and roster construction. The film focuses on finding ball players who could "get on base," even if it meant they had a traditional scouting defect, like height, throwing form, weight, and more.
Although the sport of basketball doesn't have bases for guys to 'get on', that doesn't mean the logic isn't fit to be used in other ways. Instead of batting average or on-base percentage, college basketball programs have 3-point shooting percentage and assist-to-turnover ratios.
If Billy Beane wanted to replace the open roster spots just by finding guys who shot over 45% from the 3-point line, or only allowed a certain amount of shot attempts in the paint, or got the most offensive rebounds, he very well could.
Could it work for Kansas?
From a bird's-eye view, it feels like schools that have major NIL resources would succeed in the portal. The bluebloods and major football powerhouses have seemingly endless access to NIL resources, meaning they should be getting the top talent every year. That's what Kansas did, right? Forget about the intricacies of roster construction. Let's go and get the best three to five guys to fill out the roster!
To most people's surprise, including those in Lawrence, that didn't work this year. From the top-ranked team in the pre-season to losing in the first round. Self brought guys in who could shoot and defend the perimeter, yet the team struggled to defend the perimeter and severely lacked in the rebounding department.
So, instead of throwing the checkbook at the best names in the portal, Self and the program are taking a different approach. They are being patient and finding guys who fit a few different criteria. First, they've gotta be willing to get dirty on the defensive end. Both Dawson and White do that well, at least on paper.
Secondly, they have to have good shooting percentages. Dawson shot 41.1% from the floor, and White shot 50.7%. White's one drawback in that area is that he doesn't have a lot of shot volume, only taking about seven shots per game. But what White lacks in shot taking he makes up for in the next criteria.
Finally, Self likely wants guys who can grab rebounds effectively. Game after game, Self's squad lost the second-chance points battle to teams who capitalized on their offensive rebounding. While both guys the team has acquired in the portal are not elite rebounders, they do it fine enough.
Will this approach work for the Jayhawks next season? Only time will tell. The roster outlook is a lot better at the time this is being written compared to a week ago when Bidunga was likely playing for another school. As each day passes, more players get linked to Kansas. St. Bonaventure guard Melvin Council, Kansas State guard Brendan Hausen, and more are on KU's radar. The output of this 'Moneyball' type approach won't be seen until the season starts up again in November.
The next set of transfers to commit to Kanas certainly don't 'get on base,' but they might just put up shots, grab offensive rebounds, or shut down players on the perimeter efficiently enough to be on the roster, just as Scott Hatteberg and his on-base percentage were for the Athletics in 2002.