After a season of ups and downs, the No. 14 Jayhawks find themselves with one game remaining before the postseason kicks off, and it's another date with the Kansas State Wildcats, this time in Allen Fieldhouse.
K-State’s difficult season culminated Feb. 15 with the firing of head coach Jerome Tang after the Wildcats fell to 10–15. Since then, interim coach Matthew Driscoll has gone 2–3 over the last five games heading into Saturday’s Sunflower Showdown.
After falling to Arizona State on Tuesday night in Tempe, it's hard to imagine the Jayhawks losing to a 12–18 team on senior night in the Phog. Still, it’s worth exploring what a loss could mean for KU’s NCAA Tournament seed.
With bracket and seeding projections dominating the national conversation, let’s map out every scenario the Jayhawks could face when they hear their name called on Selection Sunday.
2-Seed Lock
Despite recent struggles, Kansas still has a clear path to a No. 2 seed in the Big Dance: win out. Beat Kansas State and win the Big 12 Tournament, and the Jayhawks would be a lock for a No. 2 seed.
2/3 Seed Toss-up
Winning out is the only way to guarantee KU a No. 2 seed, but there are still two paths that could land the Jayhawks on either the No. 2 or No. 3 line on Selection Sunday, depending on how nearby teams perform in their conference tournaments.
The first scenario: defeat Kansas State on Saturday, then reach the Big 12 Championship game before falling. That outcome would likely place Kansas right on the No. 2 or No. 3 seed line, with two quality wins in the conference tournament along the way.
The other (highly unlikely) path for KU to land on the No. 2 or No. 3 line would begin with Kansas State upsetting the Jayhawks on Saturday. From there, Kansas would need to turn around and win the Big 12 Tournament. A loss to Kansas State would drop the Jayhawks to the No. 5 seed in the conference tournament, costing them the double-bye and forcing them to play an extra round. That means KU would need four wins in four days to claim the title. If that scenario played out, Kansas would likely land on either the No. 2 or No. 3 line, though reaching a No. 2 seed would require help from around the country, given the damage of a K-State loss.
3/4 Seed Toss-up
Although Kansas can still lock up a No. 3 seed, the path depends on help. The Jayhawks would need to beat Kansas State while Texas Tech wins at BYU, giving KU the No. 4 seed and a double-bye in the Big 12 Tournament. If Iowa State (No. 5) advances to the quarterfinals and Kansas wins that matchup but falls in the semifinals, a 1–1 showing in the conference tournament would likely secure a No. 3 seed in the Big Dance.
However, if BYU beats Texas Tech on Saturday (and KU wins), Kansas would earn the No. 3 seed in the Big 12 Tournament. In that case, the Jayhawks would avoid a third meeting with Iowa State, and a 1–1 showing in Kansas City would likely drop KU to the No. 4 line in the NCAA Tournament due to a weaker quarterfinal win.
Another scenario: If the Jayhawks lose to K-State on Saturday but reach the Big 12 Championship game and fall, finishing 3–1 in Kansas City, they would sit on the edge of a No. 3 or No. 4 seed. Which line KU receives in this situation would likely hinge on the quality of their path to the title game.
4-Seed Lock
Only one scenario locks the Jayhawks into a No. 4 seed: lose to K-State on Saturday, then go 2–1 in the Big 12 Tournament as the No. 5 seed. That path would include a high-quality win over Iowa State, keeping KU among the top four national seeds despite a tough loss to Kansas State.
Likely 4-Seed
Beat K-State on Saturday but lose the first game of the Big 12 Tournament, and the Jayhawks would likely remain on the No. 4 line. A loss to Iowa State would essentially lock in that seed, while a loss to anyone else could drop KU to No. 5 depending on nearby teams’ results (but that’s a long shot).
Reminder: KU will only face Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinals if Texas Tech beats BYU on Saturday.
5-Seed Lock
If KU loses to K-State on Saturday and falls to the No. 5 seed in the Big 12 Tournament, they would have no opportunities for high-quality wins in their opening game in Kansas City. That means if they go 1–1 or 0–1, the Jayhawks would most likely slide to the No. 5 line on Selection Sunday.
As you can see, there are still a plethora of scenarios the Jayhawks could face between now and Selection Sunday. All we can do is speculate, giving the public a clearer picture of what each outcome could mean.
Where will the Jayhawks land when the Selection Committee unveils the bracket one week from Sunday?
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