The 2024-25 Kansas basketball season has been a rollercoaster, but it hit rock bottom with a stunning collapse against Houston in Allen Fieldhouse. KU watched its lead evaporate in the final moments of a chaotic overtime thriller, resulting in one of the most improbable comebacks in recent college basketball history.
After a tumultuous first 40 minutes, the Jayhawks appeared to have sealed the game in the first overtime. However, a pair of missed free throws by Dajuan Harris and some costly inbound turnovers opened the door for Houston. The Cougars capitalized with a pair of clutch 3-pointers to send the game into a second overtime.
According to advanced metrics from KenPom, Houston's win defied all odds. When Kansas held a 6-point lead with 20 seconds remaining in the first overtime, Houston’s chance of victory was estimated at a minuscule 0.4%. Yet the Cougars pulled off the unthinkable, making it the most improbable win among 1,487 games between AP Top 25 teams in 15 years. How did Kansas even manage to choke this game away?
Per KenPom, Houston had a 0.4% chance to win when Kansas had the ball and a 6-point lead with 20 seconds remaining in 1st OT.
— Jared Berson (@JaredBerson) January 26, 2025
That makes Houston’s eventual win the most unlikely in any of the 1,487 games between AP Top-25 teams over the last 15 seasons.
Kansas basketball snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against Houston
Cougar fans very well could have turned off their TVs once Harris trotted to the charity stripe with UH down by six. Unfortunately, Kansas drew up the most far-fetched way to lose a basketball game that one could even fathom. It was nothing short of a nightmare for the Jayhawk faithful.
The loss encapsulates KU’s struggles this season and raises questions about the mystique of Allen Fieldhouse moving forward. With this defeat, Kansas has now dropped multiple home games in a single season for the first time since 2017-18. That is certainly a troubling sign for a program that prides itself on dominance at home.
While the Jayhawks were without starter KJ Adams for the third straight contest, the team’s inability to close out games emphasizes a critical flaw. Kansas is far from the great team it was supposed to be. There have been flashes of the squad that Bill Self aspired to put together in the offseason, but things have not clicked yet.
Winning a conference title is no longer a realistic goal, and while the ultimate measure of success lies in March Madness, the Jayhawks must rediscover their edge if they hope to salvage their season and contend on the national stage.