No, saying a team has just a 58.1% chance of making a bowl game isn’t the most reassuring statement you can make. But for the Kansas Jayhawks, this is where they are.
For a team reeling in 30 new transfers and 19 freshmen, while also changing the coaching staff around, this is the best you could probably ask for. Especially when you remember that the Jayhawks are reeling in back-to-back 5-7 seasons.
ESPN’s latest FPI calculations firmly project KU to land with a 6-6 record, doing just enough to secure Lance Leipold’s third bowl game in six years, an impressive feat considering the abyss they were in prior to Leipold’s arrival.
Finding Kansas’ six wins is easier said than done
The same FPI that projects six wins also presents game-by-game chances to portray a 3-9 record.
Below will be each of Kansas’ opponents and ESPN’s Matchup Predictor chances of the Jayhawks attaining the win.
Long Island University (H) September 4 (99%)
Missouri (H) September 11 (28%)
Arizona State (N) September 19, Union Jack Classic (47.4%)
Middle Tennessee (H) October 4 (94.1%)
Utah (A), October 10 (23.4%)
Kansas State (A), October 17 (37.4%)
Baylor (H), October 24 (45.7%)
TCU (A) October 31 (32.7%)
UCF (H) November 7 (61%)
WVU (A) November 14 (49.6%)
BYU (H) November 21 (28.1%)
Oklahoma State (A) November 28 (42.0%)
So how the Jayhawks get to a 6-6 record in ESPN’s eyes is a little baffling, but in a preview of Kansas’ basketball schedule, the task was to divide Kansas’ opponents into three tiers. Here we diagnosed some potential “sleeper” wins. In order for the Jayhawks to reach another bowl they will need to cash in on more than a few of those wins,
For those who were wondering, Kansas is also listed as having a 1.5% chance of winning the Big 12, a 2.8% shot at making the College Football Playoff and what is registered as a .1% chance of winning the whole thing.
In respect to the rest of the Big 12, the Jayhawks’ 2.8 FPI is 13th-best in the conference and their 6-6 record ranks 11th in the conference.
What is causing so much doubt about this team?
You could make the case that this is one of Leipold’s most talented teams and won’t find much argument in terms of quality. The Jayhawks now have a running back room filled with two power-conference-caliber backs in Dylan Edwards and Yasin Willis; KU is also reeling in a wideout corps that could be spearheaded by Nik McMillan, a player who notched 7 games with at least 100 yards last season. Overall, their defense looks a lot more experienced than years past. The problem is, there are still many faults that need to be remedied on the field before fans and pundits believe that there was a real change.
However, none of the pressing questions will be answered until the Jayhawks take to the field against LIU for the season opener.
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