Opinions are mixed on what the 2026-27 Kansas Jayhawks can do on the hardwood next season.
There is a genuine feel-good factor with the return of Bill Self and the fact that Kansas is reeling in two five-star commits, one of which being the nation’s No. 1 player, Tyran Stokes. However, there is also an equal part skepticism over a team that was broken down and put back together via the NCAA Transfer Portal, a place where the Jayhawks have had their share of hits and misses.
In Myron Medcalf’s latest ESPN article titled “Projecting every Big 12 team's floor and ceiling for 2026-27,” he found it difficult to properly measure this team next season, something even the die-hard fans are stumbling over.
Medcalf put the floor at 23 wins, with a 5th-place finish in the Big 12 and an exit in the round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament.
For the ceiling, Medcalf projected 34 wins, first in the Big 12, and a run to the Final Four.
“Bill Self announced his return at the end of last season, but only after he'd had conversations with his family about his future,” opened Medcalf. Earlier this month, Self appeared on Jon Rothstein’s “Inside College Basketball Now,” where he discussed going wrong in the press conference following Kansas’ round of 32 exit at the hands of St. John’s.
“Self has had to address retirement rumors for the past few years -- his answer after this upcoming campaign likely depends on five-star recruit Tyran Stokes, the projected No. 1 pick in the 2027 NBA draft. He's a strong, versatile, talented player who could very well carry the team to the Final Four.”
Stokes marks Kansas’ back-to-back No. 1 high school prospect as last season saw Darryn Peterson join the Jayhawks. The results were mixed, but ultimately saw KU finish the season with a fourth straight NCAA Tournament exit before the Sweet 16.
“But Self no longer has the veterans who might have made the transition to college hoops easier for Stokes and fellow five-star recruit Taylen Kinney. Self's future might well depend on the success of a roster that will need its freshmen to step up.”
Kansas’ lack of experience has largely been thrown at them as their biggest problem, and it's hard to disagree. As of publication, the Jayhawks will only be playing three true upperclassmen in Christian Reeves, Keanu Dawes and Dennis Parker Jr. Out of those three, only Dawes has seen Big 12 basketball, with two seasons at Utah before joining KU.
Which of these is more likely to happen?
Usually, when a floor and a ceiling are so polar, the best thing to do is navigate towards the middle, because both a Final Four and a round-of-64 crash-out can happen with little surprise directed towards either.
However, since we are in an offseason and there is room to be optimistic, this is a KU team that feels like it is built around better with Stokes than it ever did with Peterson, and while the experience is a worry, with the amount of tests Kansas has to play over the season, they will quickly learn how to wade through the choppy waters of the campaign.
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