Love them or hate them, analytics and stats are the face of the future in most sports, and football keeps its place in line with those at the front. Earlier last month, we broke down the SP+ metric by Bill Connelly on ESPN. Today, we wanted to look at analytics powerhouse OPTA for their predictions heading into next season around the Big 12.
Opta rankings were based on what they call TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster). OPTA broke it down simply, like this
"Combines play data from the prior season with adjustments for recruiting class rankings, transfer portal additions, and other offseason roster turnover. It also accounts for each team’s strength of schedule (both last year and this year) and then reaches a projected record for 2025."
Here is an in-depth breakdown for those interested.
OPTA predicted Kansas as the third-best team in the Big 12.
"2025 preseason TRACR rank: 3rd (1st OFF, 13th DEF)
"One scary thing: Quarterback Jalon Daniels and All-Big 12 center Bryce Foster both had offseason surgeries, and it’s not clear how healthy either is (especially Foster) heading into camp. The Jayhawks came together well at the end of last year and need to parlay that into a good start.
"One exciting thing: The pass rush looks promising. KU generated an above-average 35.6% pressure rate last season and returns three of its top four pass rushers by adjusted sacks (Dean Miller, Tommy Dunn and DJ Withers). This should be a strong line.
"Player to watch: It’s really all on Daniels, isn’t it? Kansas stunk last year when he couldn’t stop throwing the ball to the other team and got much better once he did."
Surprisingly, OPTA actually predicted Kansas to have the most wins in the Big 12 throughout the regular season, sitting at a predicted 8.6 expected wins to a 3.4 expected loss tally. Texas Tech ranks just behind with an 8.5 expected win tally.
This likely comes in large part due to the low Big 12 strength of schedule ranking given by CBS Sports, which ranked Lance Leipold's team as the 13th-easiest schedule in the conference.
Kansas has the pleasure of hosting two of its hardest games in Kansas State and Utah, only going on the road to face three teams who finished with winning records last Fall. With Bye Weeks assigned at appropriate times.