This truly is the best time of the year. The days are longer, the temperatures are starting to rise, and college basketball conference tournaments are being played ahead of the NCAA Tournament in mid-March. There's already seven schools who have punched their ticket to the Big Dance at the time of this article being written.
For the Kansas Jayhawks, their journey to an automatic bid starts on Wednesday night in Kansas City, Missouri. The 6th-seeded Jayhawks await the result of Tuesday night's 11-seed vs. 14-seed matchup between UCF and Utah. Advancing from Wednesday would give them a rematch against the Wildcats of Arizona on Thursday night.
This time of the season is usually a measure of how strong a team can become in the tournament. This time, more than most, it is especially true for the Jayhawks. After their Wednesday night game, the final three opponents they might face are all quality Quad 1 teams.
Convincing wins could do wonders for their seed line come Selection Sunday. Winning the whole tournament would be the best-case scenario, but it's not an easy path. How will the Jayhawks' path through the conference tournament affect their seeding?
How Things Currently Stand
I'm not Joe Lunardi, and I'm not some expert analytics person, but I think Saturday's senior night victory over Arizona solidified KU's position firm as a No. 7 seed, at the minimum. In terms of region or first-round location, I couldn't tell you, but I feel confident in that.
According to Lunardi's most updated bracketology (as of 1:44 AM on 3/11) the Jayhawks are slotted as a No. 6 seed who plays the No. 11 seed winner of a first-four matchup between Indiana and Oklahoma. CBS's projections have a similar matchup but a lower seed, placing Kansas as a No. 7 seed and Indiana as their first-round No. 10 seed matchup. Erik Haslam of haslametrics.com has the team as a No. 7 seed, as does Bracket Matrix which takes the average of all of the top bracket projections and calculates teams' seeds. So, overall, I'm probably close to where Kansas stands in the field ahead of Selection Sunday.
One Win in the Conference Tournament
The Jayhawks' first matchup in the Big 12 Tournament is against one of UCF and Utah. Neither team is great, and neither team should cause a problem for Kansas at this stage in the season. Yes, I'm aware that only three weeks ago Kansas marched into Salt Lake City and lost, but I don't think that result happens again with the way Kansas has played in the last five games.
They've beaten UCF twice this season, and I don't see a path where UCF beats Kansas in a third game. Arizona, who is waiting for them in the quarterfinals, is a good team. There's a real chance they get their get-back in that game, and bounce the Jayhawks out of the conference tournament to send them home to rest early.
Likely outcome: No. 7 seed
Conference Semifinal Appearance
This is definitely one of the preferred outcomes of this week for the Jayhawks, in my opinion. Beat a weaker UFC or Utah, beat Arizona again on a home-leaning neutral court, and you have yourself one quality Quad 1 win in March.
That goes a long way in the eyes of the committee, especially as Arizona is projected to be a higher seed than. That's two wins in the conference tournament. I think that pushes the Jayhawks into the lower end of the No. 6 seed line. This could see them match up against teams like Drake, VCU, or one of the No. 11 seeds from the First Four.
Likely outcome: No. 6 seed
Conference Championship Appearance
This is where things get fun. They beat Arizona, and they have a chance to be rewarded by the committee. You win three games and end up in the conference championship? That's a jackpot for the team.
This could end up with one of two results. Option one, the committee keeps them in the No. 6 seed line and they play one of the teams I've already listed. Option two, the committee values the two neutral-court Quad 1 win, which would put their Quad 1 record at 6-8, and it could give them enough juice to put them at a No. 5 seed.
Likely outcome: probably a No. 6 seed, small chance at a No. 5 seed
Conference Tournament Champions
Four wins and a dream. This would, for one, be the best outcome of any. It would reel in all of the fanbase to fully buy in to a run in March, and I think it would make Kansas a popular dark horse option for people filling out their bracket in the days following Selection Sunday.
Win the conference, you're a top-5 seed. Is there a chance that the tournament committee will look favorable upon three Quad 1 wins for Kansas this week and place them in as a No. 4 seed? Maybe, crazier things have happened in March. But, a losing record to quad 1 opponents is a glaring flaw in the team's performance this season, and would likely hold them in the 5-seed.
Likely outcome: No. 5 seed