No one was realistically asking for the Kansas Jayhawks to finish the 2026 campaign with 10 wins. Reports point to the Jayhawks as some of the lowest spenders in power-conference football, which is fine. Ultimately, this is still a basketball school, so the funds will never be equally distributed.
That being said, the Jayhawks haven’t had an acceptable start to the season. The Border Showdown still proved there is a gulf of quality between the two archrivals, and the Union Jack Classic was a painful encapsulation of what has hindered KU for the last two seasons.
Now, with 25% of the season done and only one non-Big 12 game ahead of them, Kansas has to turn things up if they want to reach three bowl games in six seasons under Lance Leipold.
ESPN analytics will tell you Leipold is set to miss out on another bowl game
After each week, it is always good to check ESPN’s heralded FPI stat to see where Kansas stands in terms of reaching a bowl game and after a 1-2 start, you can probably imagine that those numbers don’t look too promising.
Before we dive into the numbers, here is what the FPI offers.
“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.
With all that out of the way, ESPN projects the Jayhawks to land at a 4-8 record.
Trying to find the remaining five wins on Kansas’ schedule
Let’s be honest, Leipold has set the bar at six wins, and now he has to constantly chase the 2022 and 23 seasons. Those saw KU tally a 6-7 and a 9-4 record that has since been only a past feeling, with back-to-back painstaking 5-7 records.
Here is Kansas’ remaining schedule.
Middle Tennessee (H), October 4
No. 15 Utah (A), October 10
Kansas State (A), October 17
Baylor (H), October 24
TCU (A), October 31
UCF (H), November 7
WVU (A), November 14
No. 9 BYU (H), November 21
Oklahoma State (A), November 28
Assuming Kansas takes down the Blue Raiders next weekend, that would push the season record to 2-2.
The Utes are up to No. 15 and that is an away game, probably a loss.
Up next is the Sunflower Showdown. It wouldn’t be impossible for KU to end the streak; as a matter of fact, if Kansas needs four more wins, this would have to be a KU win.
Say Kansas wins and makes the record 3-3. Realistically, the Jayhawks could beat Baylor, pushing it to 4-3.
TCU suddenly becomes the season’s most important game. Looking ahead of that game for a second, UCF looks like a win, which makes it five. If Kansas beats the Horned Frogs, great, that's 6 wins, but to think KU will beat both TCU and Kansas State, that feels unrealistic.
Under Rich Rodriguez, WVU looks revamped; the BYU Cougars will likely be vying for a playoff spot, and the Cowboys are an unknown, as they have had an up-and-down start with a loss against Tulsa, but wins against No. 6 Oregon and Murray State rid those early-season woes.
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