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Early NCAA Tournament projections put Kansas in a good starting spot with a tough season ahead

The Jayhawks are no stranger to being a top seed in the NCAA Tournament.
ByEricka Brockish
Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self yells from the bench during the exhibition game against Louisville Cardinals inside Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas on Oct. 21, 2026.
Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self yells from the bench during the exhibition game against Louisville Cardinals inside Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas on Oct. 21, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Kansas basketball and the NCAA Tournament are synonymous with each other. After 36 straight appearances in March Madness, the year that streak is broken will be monumental, but according to bracketologist Joe Lunardi, it won't be this season.

The NCAA Tournament is going through its first major change in a very long time this season, expanding from 64 teams to 76. This should be much of a change for the Jayhawks, who typically aren't playing in the play-in games. Actually, Lunardi has Kansas feeling pretty good, initially projected as a 3-seed in the South Division of the bracket.

After a season of ups and downs, dealing with injuries, and never knowing whether star Darryn Peterson would actually be playing or not, this is a great projection for Bill Self and his squad.

Could this be the season Kansas gets back to the National Championship?

The regular season has yet to begin, as we are just days away from games tipping off, but there are already some clear front-runners to be contenders this season. Florida and Illinois are two teams that had a lot of retention from last season and could make another deep run. Duke hit the transfer portal hard and, as a blue-blood, is looking like a contender yet again.

Kansas, on the other hand, came in at No. 17 in the preseason AP Poll, which isn't horrible, but not nearly as high as the Jayhawks are used to. It looked like Self was going to bring an entirely new team into this season, but after some rulings on the five-for-five eligibility changes, some familiar faces have returned to give it another go at a National Championship.

Players like Melvin Council Jr. and Tre White will return to the Jayhawks, while transfers like Trey Kaufman-Renn will make their Kansas debut. There is hope that they will be able to be with the Jayhawks all season long, but that is left up to the legal proceedings.

All eyes will be on freshman Tyran Stokes, the No. 1 recruit in the Class of 2026, coming to Lawrence and hoping to bring a Natty back to Kansas for the first time since 2022. He is joined by fellow five-star recruit Taylen Kinney, who has settled in nicely with Self's system.

This team is stacked, but they had their struggles offensively during exhibition play. If there is one thing Self can do as one of the top college basketball coaches of all time, it is to get his team into shape to compete at the highest level.

So a 3-seed projection is a great start for the Jayhawks and sets them up nicely to potentially compete for a National Championship, but knowing Self, he wants more out of his team. He wants to be a top seed and give his team the best possible road to a championship.

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