The Kansas basketball team will be fielding nearly an entirely new roster ahead of Bill Self’s 24th season at the helm.
So far, KU has been able to replenish the exits of all but Kohl Rosario and Paul Mbiya, with the likes of the nation’s No. 3 overall freshman class, highlighted by two five stars, the nation’s No. 1 player in the country, Tyran Stokes (small forward) and Taylen Kinney (point guard). And the country’s No. 26 NCAA Transfer Portal class, which comprises four stars: Keanu Dawes (power forward), Leroy Blyden Jr. (point guard), Dennis Parker Jr. (shooting guard) and Christian Reeves (center).
While all these incoming players look promising on paper, there is no guarantee that things will mesh on the court, which is why even after the announcement of Stokes was made official, there have still been massive gulfs in where the Jayhawks will land come next March.
Of course, stats and analytics are not the end-all be-all; some analytics have been pinned to the top of the food chain of reliability, including the Torvik, also known as the “T-Rank.”
Earlier this week, the Torvik released its preseason projections, where Kansas was placed as the nation’s No. 6 highest “Barthag” rating.
What does all this mean?
The “Barthag” is a measurement system based on a team's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies, eventually measuring out to the number of times a team could beat an average opposition on a neutral court. Kansas’ BARTHAG of a .9455, means the Jayhawks would beat an “average” team on a neutral court 94.55% of the time. This falls only behind Houston (.9601 in the Big 12).
A deeper dive into the numbers
Kansas’ adjusted offensive efficiency ranks No. 20 in the country with a 119.9, as its defense ranks No. 8 with a 93.5. This follows a similar trend to last season, when Self’s defense often had to carry the weight, allowing 69.1 points per game (No. 47th in the country), as their offense ranked No. 161 with just 75.1 points per game.
To no one’s surprise, KU is reeling in just 6.4% of returning minutes; those minutes are filled in by Rosario and Mbiya.
While no team wants to be as transfer/freshman-laden as the Jayhawks, Kansas’ “Projected Talent” places KU No. 15 in the country with a solid 71.7 out of a possible 100. For reference, Duke ranks No. 1 with an 89.1. Kansas’ 71.7 is No. 2 in the Big 12 behind just Arizona.
This proves that while the Jayhawks have had to backfill via the high school and transfer portal ranks, they are still bringing in one of America’s strongest rosters, something that Self has been questioned for (especially his gallants into the portal) over past seasons.
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