The Kansas Jayhawks are at somewhat of a crossroads for their season. After two crushing losses in their last three games, they have their backs against the wall as the Cyclones come to town. They blew multiple late leads against Houston two Saturdays ago, then blew a 19-point halftime lead two days ago against Baylor. A rematch with Iowa State could turn this season around or be the final nail in the Jayhawks' Big 12 title hopes.
Here are my best bets for the crucial Monday night showdown.
Zeke Mayo Over 15.5 Points (-108)
Mayo is coming off one of his worst shooting performances of the season. In Saturday's loss to Baylor, he had his third lowest field goal percentage and his lowest in nearly a month. However, he had been putting up solid scoring numbers prior to that game. Going back to mid-December, Mayo is averaging 19 points per game, including 17 in his first meeting with the Cyclones.
That first matchup wasn't exactly a stellar shooting night for the Jayhawks, as they were just 40-percent from the field and 31-percent from outside. It was mostly the volume shooting that got Mayo to that number. However, volume has been a mainstay for him over the past handful of games. Prior to the Baylor game, he averaged nearly 16 shots over five games. That number includes a nine-shot outing, so the actual average is even higher.
If Mayo gets close to that number of shots, it would take a terrible game for him to not hit 16 points. In games where he takes at least 12 shots, he is averaging 21 points and has scored 16 points in all but one of those 11 games. About half his shots come from outside, which increases his chance of scoring higher points. Assuming he hits 3-4 from deep, he should have no problem hitting this number.
Hunter Dickinson Under 8.5 Rebounds (-132)
The rise of Flory Bidunga has taken away from Dickinson's rebounds in a major way. In the four games prior to the Baylor game, in which Bidunga played just 15 minutes, the freshman had been averaging over nine rebounds per game. In comparison, Dickinson's usual front court running mate, KJ Adams, averages less than five rebounds in nearly 29 minutes per game.
In the four games that Bidunga flourished, Dickinson averaged just eight rebounds per game. That is about four less than he was pulling down in the month prior. He also had just eight rebounds in the first meeting with Iowa State, and that was before Bidunga's emergence.
The reason I'm extra confident in this pick is the way Saturday's game unfolded. The Jayhawks led by 19 points at halftime. In the second half, when Bidunga played just a handful of minutes, Baylor outscored them by 30 and handed Kansas their worst blown lead in school history.
Bill Self is loyal to KJ Adams (maybe to a fault at times), but he is also one of the best coaches college basketball has ever seen. I have a feeling we might see Flory play his season high in minutes against the Cyclones. In their first contest, he had six points, three rebounds, and four blocks in just 11 minutes. He will have to avoid foul trouble, as he also collected four fouls in those 11 minutes. I think he has learned a lot since then and will have a solid outing. If the past month has shown us anything, that is bad news for Dickinson's rebound total.