The biggest game of the Kansas basketball season on Wednesday night takes place in Ames, Iowa. The Jayhawks, fresh off their third straight convincing win, make the short trip north to take on the Cyclones, who haven't lost since the Maui Invitational in late November. Even though this game is early in the conference schedule, it could have major implications in the Big 12 race. Unfortunately for fans of high scoring basketball, I think this one will be a dog fight for the better part of 40 minutes.
Which leads me to my favorite bets for the game.
Hunter Dickinson Over 11.5 Rebounds (+110)
These are arguably the best defenses both of these teams have faced so far this season, and may very well be the best defenses they'll see the rest of the season as well. The Cyclones are 57th in opponent field goal percentage, while the Jayhawks are sixth. The defense that Kansas has displayed over the past three games has been as suffocating as I can ever remember seeing. However, both teams rank fairly low in opponent field goal attempts (188th and 210th). What happens when a lot of shots meet stifling defense? That's right, a lot of rebound opportunities.
Dickinson has been a rebound machine nearly every game this season. He has grabbed double digit rebounds in nine games and has just three games with less than eight so far this year. He has also hit this number in every game where he has played 30-plus minutes and is averaging more than 12 rebounds over his past seven games.
The Cyclones have decent size (two 6'10" players who average 33 minutes per game), but they only average a total of nine rebounds per game. Neither of them are big scoring threats either, especially from outside the paint. That means, barring a blowout or foul trouble, Dickinson should be able to eclipse that magical 30 minute threshold in this one.
Joshua Jefferson Over 7.5 Rebounds (-126)
This is basically copy and paste what I said about Dickinson. Jefferson will have a significant height advantage over every defender across from him (barring an unlikely pairing with Flory Bidunga or Dickinson). That, coupled with the fact that he is averaging just shy of eight rebounds per game, should lead to plenty of opportunities to crash the glass.
His primary defenders will likely be Zeke Mayo and Rylan Griffen (with some AJ Storr time mixed in). Mayo, who will likely see the most minutes matched up with Jefferson, is giving up five inches and somewhere between 40-50 pounds (depending on your source). Griffen is a bit taller, but doesn't add much in the weight department. In what could be a heavyweight bout, Jefferson's size could be a massive advantage for the Cyclones.