The Kansas Jayhawks are fresh off of two convincing wins and looking to keep the momentum going. After dropping their conference opener to West Virginia, the Jayhawks have won their last two games by a combined 70 points. Next up is an afternoon matchup against Cincinnati, who is looking for its first conference win of the season.
Here are my best bets for the contest.
Zeke Mayo Over 15.5 Points (-114)
This one just doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Mayo has been on a tear recently, averaging more than 21 points over his last five games. If you take out the six-point performance against UCF, which tied his second lowest point total of the season, that average jumps to more than 25 points. He's made at least six shots in four of those five games (again, the UCF game being the outlier) and made five 3-pointers in three of them. He is far and away the best shot creator on the team and can produce both off the dribble and on catch and shoot opportunities.
My only guess as to why this total is so low is the fact that Cincinnati is 9th in the country in points allowed. Opponents are scoring just 61 points per game against the Bearcats, which is nearly 20 points less than what the Jayhawks are averaging so far this season. However, I think their defense will hinder Hunter Dickinson more than Zeke Mayo. Cincinnati actually has the size to stand up to Dickinson, with a 6-foot-11 and 7-foot duo that average nearly 28 minutes and block about 2.5 shots per game. That means Mayo could see even more volume than he's been getting recently, which is already 13 shots per game over the past five games. Barring another UCF type of performance, I think Mayo should be able to hit this number fairly easily.
Kansas Moneyline (-111)
This one also doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Yes, the game is in Cincinnati, but that's about the only significant advantage the Bearcats have at this point in the season. The Jayhawks have won four of their last five games, with an average margin of victory just shy of 30 points. The lone loss was by 1 point, which took their scoring margin over that stretch from +119 to +118.
Cincinnati, on the other hand, has lost three straight games and is coming off a 20-point thrashing against Baylor. They are barely scoring 60 points per game during the losing streak, while the Jayhawks are scoring nearly 80 per game over the same stretch. Coach Self seems to have figured out the rotation and it is paying off in spades. Meanwhile, Wes Miller's group is on a downhill slide. When a team has the coaching advantage, talent advantage, AND momentum advantage, I'm going to bet on them.