We had the pleasure of connecting with Hail West Virginia site expert Joseph Smith to discuss some pressing questions over this weekend's matchup between the Mountaineers and the Kansas Jayhawks.
Do your best to properly gauge the hype and the sentiment around Rodriguez’s return. Are things on the right footing thus far?
It’s a bit tough to gauge right now. There was a good chunk of hype during the offseason – it was very much a “parable of the prodigal son” type of situation, and everyone knows that no one has had the success here that Rodriguez has had.
Neal Brown hit a sustained low point the program hasn’t seen in decades, so to replace him with the coach from the pinnacle of WVU’s success generated some goodwill. That being said, expectations were tempered given the fact that they saw so much of a roster overhaul, and even during Rich’s first stint, his first season saw the team go 3-8. It's clear the administration isn’t expecting a miracle, but it's also clear the “year zero” excuse won’t carry as much weight in this era with the program in its current position.
Whether it's on the right footing right now is yet to be determined, and plays into my “tough to gauge” assessment. The road loss to Ohio and a very stagnant-looking offense – an anomaly for Rodriguez that played a big role in that loss – have put a bit of a damper on the mood. But the Pitt win salvaged a lot of goodwill. The feeling in that stadium last week was pretty indescribable, and that win is probably the best that most fans have felt about WVU football since at least 2018. So whether it's on the right footing is to be determined, but that momentum and excitement could mean a lot.
Also, Zac Alley’s defense is very promising and has bought plenty of goodwill as well. It’s not perfect, but don’t expect to shred it up for 55 points like in 2022. Pitt scored 24 points, and Ohio scored 17. WVU forced four turnovers in those two games.
Lance Leipold spoke on Monday about how hard it is to prepare for the multiple QBs that WVU may employ on Saturday. Is this another example of our favorite quote, “If you have two quarterbacks, you have none”? Or is there a real threat, whoever is under center?
It's not quite certain that it’s a “if you have two, you have none” situation, but it also might be.
Nicco Marchiol has started all three games this year, is a redshirt junior, and is 4-1 as a starter in his WVU career (and didn’t start but played all but one drive in the 2023 Backyard Brawl win for WVU as well). He has also been benched and then brought back in late during the past two games – he led a comeback during one of them, but the other ended in a loss.
He battled adversity well against Pitt and might be the best locker-room leader WVU has. He also has not shown he’s explosive enough to be a run threat in Rodriguez’s option offense, and holds onto the ball way too long while playing behind a poor offensive line. He has the fifth-worst pressure-to-sack ratio in FBS, and the worst among Power 4 quarterbacks. He feels like more of a game manager than a game changer. Behind him is Jaylen Henderson, who is a much more explosive runner but through three games and the “Spring Showcase” has shown zero competent passing ability.
True freshman Scotty Fox Jr. has also seen plenty of playing time and looks brilliant occasionally, but threw two crucial interceptions on consecutive drives that almost cost WVU the Pitt game.I think Max Brown is the wild card, he transferred in this offseason along with Henderson and he had really bad stat lines at Florida and Charlotte, but looked the most like a Rich Rod quarterback during the spring. He was injured to start the season however, and hasn’t seen a snap.
Which Kansas position group are you most scared of facing on Saturday?
The defensive line. Kansas has 10 sacks this year, which is among the Top 15 in the nation in that statistical category. Seven of those come from the defensive line alone, which means the defensive tackles and defensive ends by themselves would be 45th in FBS in sacks.
Now, it just so happens that WVU’s offensive line is pretty bad. How bad? Against FCS opponent Robert Morris, the starting five managed an average PFF grade of 61.09. That moved up slightly to an average of 62.08 against MAC opponent Ohio. Against Pitt, it plummeted to an average of 51.18. There’s a reason why WVU needed that nine-man offensive line jumbo set that went viral, and it’s not because they’re particularly great at getting a push up front. Now, Tye Edwards at running back can bully defenders a bit, and the tempo of a Rich Rod offense (93 offensive snaps against Pitt) can wear a defensive line down. But Kansas’ defensive line can make life tough for WVU’s offensive line on Saturday if they play their cards right.
Kansas is sitting as a 13.5-point favorite; it feels slightly high from a Kansas point of view. Is the line fair?
A lot of WVU fans and even some of the media don’t seem to think it’s fair – a lot of them also didn’t think being just a 3.5 point favorite against Ohio was a fair line, and we saw what happened there
It might be a little high, but I certainly don’t think it's a stretch in the slightest that Kansas might win by two touchdowns. I’d just expect it to be more of a 24-10 score than a 42-28 score, because Alley’s defense can hold its own, but the offense has shown nothing to indicate they’re a consistent threat
Defensive lineman Jimmori Robinson looks like he is going to suit up. How much does this change the complexion of the Mountaineer defensive front?
WVU’s front seven already looks pretty good without Robinson, and the Mountaineers are second in the nation in sacks through three games. Add in Robinson, a Top 100 transfer portal prospect who had 10.5 sacks at UTSA last year, and you might have one of the best pass rushes in the Big 12, if not the country – although the sample size is too small to truly be able to say that with conviction yet. I don’t know what sort of shape he’s in or how he’ll be integrated this week since he’s so new to the system and far behind his teammates, but I expect to see him and he’s the type of player who makes an impact just by being on the field.
Kansas takes on the Mountaineers Saturday evening at 5 PM CT.