Through the Phog
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Iowa State vs. Kansas prediction and odds for Saturday, January 14th

By Josh Yourish

Kansas freshman guard Gradey Dick (4) reacts after scoring a three-pointer during the second half of Saturday's game against Indiana inside Allen Fieldhouse.
Kansas freshman guard Gradey Dick (4) reacts after scoring a three-pointer during the second half of Saturday's game against Indiana inside Allen Fieldhouse. /
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Phog Allen Fieldhouse might be the toughest place to play in the entire country, but the Jayhawks opponents haven’t been deterred lately. No. 2 Kansas is 4-0 in conference play and 15-1 overall, but their last two at home they’ve won by two over Oklahoma State, and by four over Oklahoma.

No. 14 Iowa State is also 4-0 in the conference and just ran away with one against Texas Tech last time out. The Cyclones are 13-2 and could be in a good spot to pull an upset in this one. Kansas is the favorite at home, but let’s see if there’s some value in these odds.

Iowa State vs. Kansas odds, spread and total

Iowa State vs. Kansas prediction and pick

Oklahoma gave Bill Self’s team issues more recently, but the Oklahoma State game is the one that is most instructive for today. The Cowboys, like the Cyclones, are one of the very best teams in college basketball on the defensive end of the floor and that style made things tough for the Jayhawks. Everybody knows that the worst thing that can happen to Kansas is a Cyclone.

The Iowa State Cyclones are fourth in defensive efficiency and sixth in KenPom’s adjusted defense. Opponents are only scoring 57.7 points a game against them and shooting barely over 30% from three. Though there are differences between these Cyclones and the other teams, namely OK State, that’s given Kansas all that they can handle. Oklahoma State is an incredibly long team on the and has the fifth best opponent two-point field goal percentage in the nation. Iowa State’s defense is excellent and anchored by Osun Osuniyi, but opponents are shooting 47.8% from two against the Cyclones, over 6% higher than against Oklahoma State. Over their last three games their opponents are shooting well over 50% inside the arc.

Gradey Dick and Jalen Wilson will be able to get to the rim easily enough today and the Jayhawks will get their most comfortable win in the Big 12 this year, over the highest ranked opponent they’ve faced.

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change