Kansas football: Why the Jayhawks should go for it on 4th down

The Kansas football program has been one of the worst in the FBS over the last 12 years. And it seems like it’s the same story every year.

The typical Kansas football cycle? A new coach comes in, tries to outsmart the opponents to make a quick turnaround, and ultimately they fail. Rinse and repeat.

There’s nothing wrong with trying new things to give your team the advantage, but they have to be reasonable and have data behind them that show they can actually work.

When Charlie Weis decided to recruit mostly JUCO players in an attempt to bring in guys with more college football experience, it failed. And there was no data to say it should have worked.

And then every time David Beaty called a timeout before a punt it made you wonder what the strategy was. Was he trying to fool the defense into thinking he was actually going for it?

But the most frustrating has been the quarterback carousel. Every coach in the last ten years that Kansas has hired has been guilty of it. One is specifically more guilty than the others.

These are all things the last four coaches have tried in order to gain some sort of advantage. But they’ve failed. And miserably at that.

But there’s an area where the Jayhawks can take advantage, and it could potentially play out well, especially with the program’s low expectations this year.

That is, go for it on 4th down.

Kansas football turning momentum on 4th down, why not?

Going for it on 4th down may sound like a questionable move, but look at some 4th down conversion rates.

Per TeamRankings.com, the average 4th down conversion rate of all of college football last year was 55.05 percent. And the year before that; 51.63 percent.

The Jayhawks 4th down conversion rate last year was 41.67 percent–well below average. And if you look at the last ten years as a whole, it’s even worse at 32.3 percent.

This makes sense with how bad the Jayhawks’ offense has been.

There are a lot of factors that go into a 4th down conversion rate, though.

How often does a team go for it on 4th down? Are they going for it outside the 50 or inside the 50? And how often are they going for it on 4th and long?

You also have to consider the play-calling. And for the Jayhawks, that hasn’t been a strength over the last ten years. And, as seen below, some days it just doesn’t work out.

Turns out, the Jayhawks’ 4th down conversion rate dramatically increases as they get inside the 50 when it’s 4th-and-5 or shorter. As it should.

In the last ten years, the Jayhawks have gone for it 125 times inside the 50 on 4th-and-5 or shorter. They converted 62 of those 125 times, for a percentage of 49.6 percent.

Another interesting stat, Kansas punted 25 times inside the opponent’s 50 on 4th-and-5 or shorter, and of those 25 times, the opposing team scored the next possession nine times.

Keep that stat in mind.

Here’s the idea – the Jayhawks should go for it on 4th down every time they’re inside the opponent 50-yard-line and it’s 4th-and-5 or shorter. The only exceptions would be if it’s late in the game and a field goal would tie or give them the lead.

Sure, this sounds absolutely crazy. But to think even in the last ten years when the program has been at its worst, they’ve converted on nearly 50 percent of their 4th downs inside the opponent 50-yard-line when it’s 4th-and-short.

Which, interestingly enough, is still below the college football average 4th down conversion rate, leaving plenty of room for improvement. And this counts all 4th downs, not just inside the opponents’ 50 when it’s 4th-and-short.

There are advantages to going for it on 4th down, and one of the biggest is keeping the drive alive.

It’s no secret the Jayhawks’ offense has been one of the worst in the FBS. But to do all that work to get inside your opponent 50-yard-line just to stall the drive with either a punt or a field goal attempt seems cruel.

It can also put the opposing defense in a difficult spot. In some cases, a defense celebrates after making a big 3rd down stop. So naturally, they can let down their guard.

By the Jayhawks deciding to go for it on 4th down, it can deflate the opposing defense. And if they can do it once, odds are they can do it again. One thing this Jayhawk offense desperately needs is to keep drives alive and to put pressure on their opponents by scoring touchdowns, not just field goals.

Truthfully, the Jayhawks should never punt on 4th-and-short inside the opponents’ 50. It really doesn’t seem to hold that much of an advantage.

Why give up the ball so easily if there’s nearly a 40 percent chance your opponent is going to score anyways? Take the high risk, high reward play and go for it.

If you make it, you keep the ball moving.

If you miss, your opponent is still in their own territory.

Conventional thinking says that for a team that has been so bad in the past, they need to have some consistency and may need to be a bit more conservative.

But, don’t believe it. Not one bit.

This Kansas team needs to be aggressive.

Because at the end of the day, this year won’t be judged on wins. It will be judged on progress. Are they competing? Are they making fewer mistakes? Are they making in-game adjustments?

And most importantly, are they playing to win the game, or just playing.