Tonight, KU basketball continues its stretch of home games against the 1-7 Long Beach State 49ers. Here’s what I’m watching for.
How will the new starting lineup respond in its second game?
Against UNC-Asheville, KU basketball head coach Bill Self trotted out a new starting lineup for the Jayhawks: Mason, Graham, Jackson, Vick, and Azubuike. In his postgame remarks, Self announced that they would start again against Long Beach. It was a coming out party for freshman center Udoka Azubuike, who scored 17 points, almost all of which were on dunks. Vick played well too, going for 15 and nine rebounds. This should continue against the 49ers, who don’t have any players above 6’7” averaging more than 12 minutes per game.
Self should run more plays for Carlton Bragg as well. The 6’10” forward doesn’t create his own shots very well, and needs set up to get in rhythm. Mason, Graham, and Jackson are all very adept and talented passers, so I hope they look for Bragg when he gets in the game. The Jayhawks will need the talented sophomore before long.
Senior Landen Lucas was better as well. He scored six points and pulled down four rebounds in more limited minutes. I still wonder if his foot isn’t 100%, since was in a boot as a precautionary measure just two weeks ago. Lucas’s rebounding rate has plummeted this season to a career low. Last year, he was an elite rebounder, with a rebound rate of 21%. This year, he’s all the way down to 12%. Even early in his career, Lucas was around a 16% rebounding rate. I look for it to regress to his career average as the season goes along.
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Which three-point shooting team will show up?
Up until the UNCA game, the Jayhawks shot a measly 30% from beyond the arc. In the friendly confines of Allen Fieldhouse, the Jayhawks erupted from the line, making 13 of 21 attempts, including 5-5 from Frank Mason. They should be able to shoot it pretty well from three-point land, as the 49ers rank only 296th in the country in three-point percentage defense, at over 38%.
Lagerald Vick seems primed for a breakout three-point shooting performance. I’ve been high on Vick as a shooter for some time, but he’s disappointed so far this year, shooting 23.5% from beyond the arc. In this week’s media availability, Vick said he noticed a mechanical flaw in his shooting stroke on film, and is working to correct it. A player as talented as Vick should be able to fix a minor flaw sooner rather than later.
Kansas shouldn’t overlook Long Beach State, even with their 1-7 record.
Sometimes, records can be misleading. According to KenPom.com, the 49ers are the 165th best team in the country, sandwiched between 6-0 Rutgers and 4-2 UNLV. Why are they so high at 1-7? They’ve played an absolutely brutal schedule. They’ve played road games at Wichita State, #5 North Carolina, #12 Louisville, #16 UCLA, and at Washington. So far, it’s the toughest non-conference schedule anyone has played in college basketball this season.
One reason they’ve struggled is turnovers. The 49ers have turned the ball over 17 times or more in five of their eight games. The Jayhawks should live off turnovers tonight. Long Beach lacks size as well, with both their frontcourt starters at just 6’7.” KU’s bigs should have a great night as well.
Bottom Line
This is a good tuneup for the Jayhawks, who have been “exposed” in the early part of the season, according to head coach Bill Self. It’s an especially good chance to get big men Landen Lucas and Carlton Bragg going. Final score: 88-61.